Lora Billings (Montclair State University)
Ira Schwartz (Naval Research Laboratory)
Erik Bollt (U.S. Naval Academy)
Population models are fascinating dynamical systems which capture all
ranges of behavior, from periodic to chaotic time
series. The SEIR model is a commonly used base model to predict epidemic
outbreaks in many diseases. Our work is the
first to identify the global mechanism to induce chaos by stochastic
perturbations, or population noise, where it does
not naturally occur. This mechanism combines both random fluctuations
and global topology to create a stochastic version
of a heteroclinic connection of the system. To refine the possibility
of epidemic control, we have analyzed the
stochastic transport between large and small outbreaks.